These are among the key findings of a new Pew Research Center analysis of demographic data. This dearth of newborns among the unaffiliated helps explain why religious вЂњnonesвЂќ (including people who identity as atheist or agnostic, as well as those who have no particular religion) are projected to decline as a share of the worldвЂ™s population in the coming decades.Д«y 2055 to 2060, just 9% of all babies will be born to religiously unaffiliated women, while more than seven-in-ten will be born to either Muslims (36%) or Christians (35%). While religiously unaffiliated people currently make up 16% of the global population, only an estimated 10% of the worldвЂ™s newborns between 20 were born to religiously unaffiliated mothers. In contrast with this baby boom among Muslims, people who do not identify with any religion are experiencing a much different trend.

By the 2055 to 2060 period, the birth gap between the two groups is expected to approach 6 million (232 million births among Muslims vs.

Globally, the relatively young population and high fertility rates of Muslims lead to a projection that between 20, there will be slightly more babies born to Muslims (225 million) than to Christians (224 million), even though the total Christian population will still be larger. The projection models in this report take into account estimated rates of religious switching (or conversion) into and out of major religious groups in the 70 countries for which such data are available. The assumption in these estimates and projections is that children tend to inherit their motherвЂ™s religious identity (or lack thereof) until young adulthood, when some choose to switch their religious identity. This report generally avoids the terms вЂњChristian babiesвЂќ or вЂњMuslim babiesвЂќ because that wording could suggest children take on a religion at birth. Parallel language is used for other religious groups (e.g., babies born to Muslims, Muslim births). The phrase вЂњbabies born to ChristiansвЂќ and вЂњChristian birthsвЂќ are used interchangeably in this report to refer to live births to Christian mothers. In Germany alone, for example, there were an estimated 1.4 million more Christian deaths than births between 20, a pattern that isВ expected to continue across much of Europe in the decades ahead. This is especially true in Europe, where the number of deaths already is estimated to exceed the number of births among Christians. Indeed, in recent years, Christians have had a disproportionately large share of the worldвЂ™s deaths (37%) вЂ“ in large part because of the relatively advanced age of Christian populations in some places. While the relatively young Christian population of a region like sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow in the decades ahead, the same cannot be said for Christian populations everywhere. In recent years, 33% of the worldвЂ™s babies were born to Christians, which is slightly greater than the Christian share of the worldвЂ™s population in 2015 (31%). The worldвЂ™s Christian population also has continued to grow, but more modestly.

In the period between 20, births to Muslims made up an estimated 31% of all babies born around the world вЂ“ far exceeding the Muslim share of people of all ages in 2015 (24%). Muslims are projected to be the worldвЂ™s fastest-growing major religious group in the decades ahead, as Pew Research Center has explained, and signs of this rapid growth already are visible. But this is unlikely to be the case for much longer: Less than 20 years from now, the number of babies born to Muslims is expected to modestly exceed births to Christians, according to new Pew Research Center demographic estimates. More babies were born to Christian mothers than to members of any other religion in recent years, reflecting ChristianityвЂ™s continued status as the worldвЂ™s largest religious group.

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